We are pleased to welcome the following members who joined our working group this quarter:

David Akinwamide, Federal Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria
Sacha Siani, Indiana University, United States

30 April
15:00 - 16:00 Central European Time
Online

The webinar will feature exciting advances in related fields that can be used to improve large-scale behavioural modelling of the land system.

Speakers:

Prof. Robert Axtell, George Mason University
Prof. Dr. Thomas Clemen, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences
Dr. Brian Mac Namee, Unviersity College Dublin

Please register even if you cannot attend the live session so we can send you the recording link and slides after the event.

Many of our members use python and R for modelling and data analysis. Workflows are streamlining towards the use of R for data wrangling, python for modelling, and R for visualization and analysis. If you’re using this type of workflow, perhaps the {reticulate} library, which enables interoperability between python and R, may be of interest.

In addition to integrating multiple platforms, is the need to checkpoint, snapshot, or package and isolate all model files and dependencies for others to use, evaluate, and replicate the presented science. For those R users interested in coming back to a project at a later date and having their code still work or if you’re interested in sharing a project and all its dependencies then the renv library may be worth exploring.

A reminder that the Working Group’s Thematic Issue in the journal SESMO is now open for submissions, and contributions from working group members are warmly welcomed. SESMO (Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, www.sesmo.org) is an open access journal with the objective to progress our understanding, learning and decision making on major socio-environmental issues using advances in model-grounded processes that engage with institutional and governance contexts, cross-sectoral and scale challenges, and stakeholder perspectives. For this Thematic Issue, we welcome contributions dedicated to the better understanding and modelling of temporal or spatial scales in land use dynamics. These contributions can present theoretical or empirical analyses, methodological contributions, or relevant model developments, and will together build towards a robust agenda for future research in this field. Submissions should be received by the end of June 2021.

Many members of our group couple human and natural system models to answer complex-systems related research questions. However, how many of the natural system models we use have been calibrated and validated at the scale at which human decision-making takes place? In the paper below, one of our members uses novel centimetre-resolution spatio-temporal data collected using an unmanned aerial vehicle to measure farm-field erosion. These unique data are then used to assess the performance of the widely used USLE and WEPP models at the farm field scale for the purpose of justifying their use with behavioural models of land-management. The publication is open access for those interested.

A new paper in Agricultural Systems presents agent-based modelling of transformational adaptation to climate change among crop farmers in Italy. The study involved agent-based modelling of transformational adaptations among crop farmers and found that behavioural change has a stronger influence than water policy, with unintended policy feedbacks also identified.

Also just published is a review paper on combining social network analysis and agent-based modelling to explore dynamics of human interaction. While the integration of these approaches offers unique opportunities to gain insights into human behaviour, some shortcomings currently exist in the combination of the two methods. The greatest room for improvement is found with regard to (i) the consideration of the concept of social integration through networks, (ii) an increased use of the co-evolutionary character of social networks and embedded agents, and (iii) a systematic and quantitative model analysis focusing on the causal relationship between the agents and the network. The authors synthesize their findings in guidelines that contain the main aspects to consider when integrating social networks into agent-based models.

Another new study explores how model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change. Using two parallel models of the European land system (one an integrated assessment model that works by economic optimisation and the other an agent-based model that simulates human decision-making), the study finds substantial differences that relate directly to basic modelling assumptions made in these contrasting paradigms. The authors conclude that each paradigm may be more relevant in particular contexts or scenario conditions, but that greater efforts are also required to identify a middle-ground to reduce the huge uncertainties in projections of land use change.

Thinking about replicating an agent-based model (ABM) or perhaps how to ensure your ABM results can be replicated by others. If so, then perhaps the publication listed below is of interest. In this publication the authors attempted to replicate a simple ABM of urban sprawl and not only found errors in the original publication, but also some shortcomings of the modelling work. A couple of the take-home points are 1) be sure your conceptual and implemented models align, 2) capture all the variation in your model outputs, and 3) more methods and approaches to evaluate replication success are needed, and 4) we need to cultivate a community that supports and rewards replication efforts.

7-11 February 2022
Conguillio National Park, Chile

In this workshop we aim to challenge traditional boundaries to develop interdisciplinary and cross-scale frameworks for the next generation of socio-ecological systems models. To inspire and facilitate this dialogue, we will explore local case studies as blueprints, from a magnificent venue in Conguillio National Park in Chile through various scales and teleconnections to other regions of the world. Participants in the workshop will include those with mathematical, statistical, and simulation modelling expertise, as well as those who have relevant empirical knowledge and expertise in working with stakeholders and policy makers in achieving robust decisions for people and nature. One third of the places will be reserved for early-career (post-doctoral) researchers, with substantially reduced costs.

30 April
15:30 - 17:00 Central European Time
Online

A session at the upcoming European Geosciences Union General Assembly (19-30 April) may be of interest to WG members. The session, organised by Ilona Otto, is on the subject of Navigating the Anthropocene: Human agency in global society-environment interaction assessments and modelling approaches.

19-23 April
Online

Organised by the Behave Lab, this school aims to introduce students to Agent-Based Models (ABM) in NetLogo by using modelling examples from social science research.

The training will be online and include lectures + hands-on training with personalised student assistance. The lecturers will help students to code an ABM from scratch in NetLogo helping students to learn advanced functionalities. No previous coding skills are required. The faculty will provide assistance and customized counselling on personal research projects during the course and provide room for project presentations.

1-24 June
Online

"Agent Based Modelling for Resilience - Making it happen" is the joint ESSA / DeSIRE Summer School aimed at working on resilience of complex systems, varying from engineering systems to social systems to ecological systems. It follows up on the successful ESSA summer schools in Wageningen in 2015 and 2017. In June 2021 the summer school will be online. The aim is to have five mixed teams of up to six people (i.e., up to a maximum of 30 participants total) from various disciplines work on delivering an operational Agent Based Model (ABM) simulation for addressing a specific research question on the topic of resilience. This summer school is primarily intended for PhD students, academics, R&D people from industry, and people working on the interface of academia and policy making, interested in Agent Based Models and resilience of coupled social-technical-environmental systems, regardless of specialization. We actively seek cross-fertilization between disciplines, and academia and industry.

9-20 August
Online

The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) will run an online international Summer School on the topic of land use and ecosystem change during August 2021.  Master and doctoral students are invited to learn about and discuss a wide range of issues related to ecosystem functioning, socio-ecological systems and land use change, in particular:

• The biophysical and human processes and concepts needed to understand the broader issues of socio-ecological systems. This includes ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, ecosystem services, resilience, vulnerability, risk management, tipping-points, sustainability and related concepts in the field. We will also explore current understanding of how physical and human environmental changes affect socio-ecological systems, including content on international assessment processes such as the IPCC and IPBES.
• Different aspects of land use change processes across geographic scales and for the past, present and future drivers of change. This will include, for example, land abandonment, extensification vs. intensification, deforestation, the role of social networks and knowledge diffusion, the role of pollinators and land management. There will be a focus on land use change assessment methods, including the role of observational data (e.g. from remote sensing and other sources) and land use modelling approaches using interactive exercises and case studies.